Tel Aviv, Oct 28 Israel’s parliamentary election may not produce any clear winner, with exit polls showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerging as the largest party, but the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot projected to win more seats than the ruling coalition in estimates by three major broadcasters.
The projections for Tuesday’s parliamentary election from Channel 13, Channel 12 and public broadcaster Kan put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, short of the 61 needed for a majority.
The opposition bloc is projected to win 52-53 seats, while Arab-led parties are expected to secure 17-18 seats.
According to the Central Elections Committee, 77.7 per cent of voters cast their ballots, an increase of 7.1 per cent from-2022, and the highest since 1999.
A separate exit poll by i24NEWS gave a more favourable projection to Netanyahu’s camp, putting his bloc at 55 seats against 49 for Eisenkot’s bloc, with Arab-led parties projected to win 16 seats.
The differing estimates leave both camps without a clear route to forming a government and point to potentially prolonged coalition negotiations. Exit polls are estimates and may differ from the final results as votes are counted.
According to Channel 13’s exit poll, Likud is projected to win 25 seats, while Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party is expected to get 23. Channel 12 projected 24 seats for Likud and 22 for Yashar, while Kan gave Likud 25 and Yashar 21.
The i24NEWS exit poll put Likud at 27 seats and Yashar at 20, reinforcing Likud’s position as the largest individual party while differing from the other broadcasters on the balance between the two main blocs.
The exit polls projected a strong showing for Arab-led parties, which oppose Netanyahu but are not formally part of the main Jewish-led opposition bloc.
Channel 13 and Kan projected 17 seats for the Arab-led parties, while Channel 12 put their combined tally at 18. The Joint List is projected to win 10 seats in Channel 13 and Kan estimates, and 11 in Channel 12’s projection. The Islamist Ra’am party is expected to secure seven seats in all three polls.
The results could increase the influence of Arab parties in the post-election negotiations. Their support from outside a coalition, or abstention in a confidence vote, could affect the opposition’s ability to form a minority government. However, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out a formal partnership with Arab-led parties.
Naftali Bennett’s opposition alliance B’Yachad is projected to win 14 seats in the Channel 13 and Kan exit polls and 12 in Channel 12’s estimate. The left-leaning Democrats, led by Yair Golan, are projected to win nine seats in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls and 10 in Kan’s projection.
The three broadcasters also projected that the Netanyahu-aligned bloc would fall well short of a majority. Their estimates put the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that support him alongside Likud at a combined 50 seats.
Some Israeli analysts say the exit-poll arithmetic leaves Netanyahu with little prospect of assembling a viable governing majority in the immediate aftermath of the election.
Rather than risk an unsuccessful attempt to form a government, he could allow the opposition to try to assemble a coalition and wait for it to falter amid internal differences, potentially paving the way for another election.
Such an outcome would not guarantee his return to power but could give him another opportunity to rebuild support.
A national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot also appears unlikely, given the strained relations between the rival leaders and Eisenkot’s stated opposition to partnering with Netanyahu.
While the option has been discussed amid the uncertain result, differences over leadership and the direction of government could make an agreement difficult.
Eisenkot, whose Yashar party is projected to lead the opposition bloc, claimed victory after polling ended. In a post on X, he said: “The public has spoken, it has fired the Netanyahu government.”
He said his party would work with its partners to bridge differences and seek to form a government.
Gideon Sa’ar, a political ally of Netanyahu, cautioned against treating the opposition’s projected lead as a decisive victory. “The celebrations on the left are premature,” he said in a post on X, adding that Likud was the largest party in Israel.
The Central Elections Committee has begun counting ballots and is expected to release tallies as the process advances.
The final count is expected by October 30, while official results are scheduled to be published on November 4.
Under Israel’s proportional representation system, voters elect party lists, and a party’s winning the most seats does not automatically entitle it to form the government.
After the official results are published, President Isaac Herzog will consult political factions and nominate the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. The nominee has up to 42 days to assemble a coalition supported by at least 61 lawmakers.
If no candidate succeeds, another lawmaker may be given the opportunity to form a government. Failure to secure a majority could eventually force Israel into another election, with the outgoing government remaining in a caretaker capacity in the interim.
(PTI News)
