Lucknow, Oct 16 Notwithstanding Gen Z protests and the Ayodhya temple donation theft issue, the BJP’s electoral advantage in Uttar Pradesh is underpinned by positive perceptions of law and order, infrastructure and welfare delivery, while employment-related concerns remain a potential challenge ahead of the 2027 assembly elections, according to a survey.
The Opposition, however, rejected the survey, claiming a victory for INDIA bloc in the 2027 polls, even though the state BJP called hailed its leadership for the sweeping findings.
The News18 Network survey, conducted among 30,925 respondents across all 75 districts of the state between September 17 and October 2, found that 66.6 per cent of respondents would vote for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while 26.4 per cent backed the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and 5.4 per cent the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
Employment emerged as the weakest-rated parameter of the government’s performance, with 58.3 per cent of respondents expressing satisfaction. The figure fell to 50.7 per cent among unemployed respondents and around 52-53 per cent among landless and unskilled workers.
Even among BJP-NDA supporters, satisfaction with employment stood at 74.5 per cent, below the ratings for law and order, infrastructure and welfare delivery.
On the issue of alleged theft of donations meant for the Ram temple, 31.2 per cent of respondents held temple trust officials responsible, followed by staff and contractors at 20.6 per cent and the state government at 13.7 per cent.
The survey also examined public perceptions of recent Gen-Z student protests and other issues featuring in public discourse, including inflation and examination paper leaks.
BJP state president Pankaj Chaudhary said various news channel surveys were also projecting a third consecutive term for the party in Uttar Pradesh, attributing the projections to public support and the work of the state government.
In a post on X, Chaudhary said the BJP was working under the guidance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the direction of party national president Nitin Nabin, while the Yogi Adityanath-led “double-engine” government was working to fulfil people’s expectations.
He said party workers were determined to secure a third term for the BJP in 2027.
Asked which alliance was likely to form the next government, 66.6 per cent favoured the BJP-led NDA, compared to 26.5 per cent for the SP-Congress alliance. As many as 65.2 per cent of respondents also believed the BJP should be given a third consecutive term in the state.
Adityanath emerged as the preferred choice for the next chief minister, with 66.2 per cent of respondents backing him, against 24.4 per cent for SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, according to the survey.
Overall, 77.1 per cent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the state government’s performance, while 13.5 per cent were dissatisfied.
Among the seven governance parameters assessed, law and order received the highest satisfaction rating at 74 per cent, followed by infrastructure at 68.6 per cent and delivery of welfare schemes at 66.3 per cent.
Law and order was also the most important voting issue for 33.4 per cent of respondents. Satisfaction with the government’s performance on this parameter stood at 89.6 per cent among current BJP-NDA voters, compared with around 43 per cent among SP-Congress and BSP supporters.
The survey found a high degree of consolidation among BJP-NDA supporters.
As many as 94.7 per cent of these voters were satisfied with the Adityanath government’s performance, 93.3 per cent named him as their preferred chief minister, and 93.2 per cent believed the BJP should receive a third term.
Further, 95.4 per cent of current BJP-NDA voters believed the alliance would form the next government.
The BJP also appeared to retain a substantial proportion of its previous supporters.
According to the survey, around 91 per cent of respondents who recalled voting for the BJP in the 2022 assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections continued to support the party or alliance. The corresponding retention rate for the SP-Congress camp was around 83-85 per cent.
The SP-Congress alliance, however, recorded an improvement over recalled voting patterns in previous elections. Its current support was 3.7 percentage points higher than the recalled 2022 vote and 2.4 percentage points above the recalled 2024 vote, the survey said.
The survey also found broadly similar perceptions of government performance among urban and rural respondents across the seven parameters. Regionally, Ruhelkhand recorded the highest or near-highest satisfaction levels on almost all parameters.
SP national secretary Arvind Singh ‘Gop’ said unemployment, corruption, farmers’ issues and the alleged Ayodhya temple donation theft would prove to be the BJP’s Waterloo in 2027, claiming the party would outperform its 2024 Lok Sabha election results.
Gop said the Samajwadi Party would perform far better than it did in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, arguing that people continued to remember development initiatives undertaken during Akhilesh Yadav’s government, including the laptop distribution scheme, Lohia Awaas, the cancer institute and the Ekana sports stadium.
He said the SP had worked across sectors and that people now acknowledged its contribution.
“How can anyone trust those who cheated God too,” Gop said, referring to the alleged theft of donations meant for the Ayodhya Ram temple, an issue that came into focus after SP chief Akhilesh Yadav raised it on June 7.
For the survey, respondents were selected across all 75 districts in proportion to their population, with both rural and urban areas covered.
Interviews were conducted door-to-door through face-to-face interactions using Computer Aided Personal Interviews (CAPI) and a structured questionnaire.
Assembly elections are expected to be held in early 2027.
(PTI News)
